CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-05-15T15:36:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2016 May 16 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60516
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 May 2016, 1249UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 May 2016 until 18 May 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2016  10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2016  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2016  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been moderate. The
largest flare was a C3.2 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2542 (Macintosh
class:Cai; Mag. type:Beta) produced the largest flare, the C3.2 class
flare, peaking at 16:03 UT yesterday. ARs 2544 (Dai; Beta-gamma) and 2545
(Cao; Beta) also produced a couple of B and C class flares. AR 2544 has
exhibited significant flux emergence and cancellation in HMI observations,
which may lead to further flares. A partial halo CME with angular width of
158 degrees and a speed 538 km/s (as measured by the CACTUS automated CME
detection algorithm) was observed at 15:24 UT yesterday. The CME was
produced from a filament eruption that occurred in the Western hemisphere
(N10W62), near the solar limb. The eruption was associated with the above-
mentioned C3.2 flare. The CME is largely orientated to the West, however,
an Earth directed component may be expected to interact with the Earth
system on 18-May-2016 at 16:30 UT +/- 12 hours. Solar protons have remained
at background levels over the past 24 hours, with a small peak at 21:00 UT
yesterday evening, which may have been related to the above mentioned CME.
Solar activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours with a
high probability of C-class flares and a medium probability of M-class
flares.
The solar wind speed has increased from around 400 to 550 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 9 nT.
The Bz component fluctuated between -9 and +9 nT. The fluctuating magnetic
field may lead to increased geo-activity over the coming day. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 2-4 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole is
currently positioned in the Western hemisphere of the Sun and the resulting
high-speed stream (HSS) may enhance solar wind speeds later today and as a
consequence may increase geo-activity levels. The CME produced at 15:24 UT
on 15-May-2016 may also increase geo-activity at the Earth around 16:30 UT
(+/- 12 hours) on 18-May-2016.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 064, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 May 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 108
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 021
AK WINGST              : 016
ESTIMATED AP           : 016
ESTIMATED ISN          : 085, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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